2
Golden Cookie
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 78
Penn National · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-06 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-06-25 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-05-16 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength66%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/2024 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 20/10/2024 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 23/04/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 16/05/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 25/06/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 06/05/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 02/06/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 17% | -0.69 |
| 24/06/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |
| 27/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |