IvyArcIvyArc
4

Armed N Dangerous

4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 87

Penn National · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m 110y

#6

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Pimlico 15/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 76 · 1m110y Slo 118 · beat its mark15/05/2025 · OR 76 par15/05C9OR 76C7 @ Delaware Park 13/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 82 · 1m Fas 119 · below its mark13/06/2025 · OR 82 parC7 @ Delaware Park 02/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 87 · 1m70y Slo 117 · beat its mark02/07/2025 · OR 87 par2/07C7OR 87C6 @ Colonial Downs 23/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 86 · 1m1f Fas 122 · below its mark23/07/2025 · OR 86 parC7 @ Laurel Park 22/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 85 · 1m110y 126 · below its mark22/02/2026 · OR 85 par22/02C7OR 85C7 @ Laurel Park 15/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 86 · 1m110y 126 · below its mark15/03/2026 · OR 86 parC7 @ Keeneland 18/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 85 · 1m110y 125 · below its mark18/04/2026 · OR 85 par18/04C7OR 85C7 @ Churchill Downs 09/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 88 · 1m110y 124 · below its mark09/05/2026 · OR 88 parC8 @ Laurel Park 13/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 91 · 1m110y Fm 126 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 91 par13/06C8OR 91projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-13Laurel Park?8th11th−3
2026-05-09Churchill Downs?4th6th−2
2026-04-18Keeneland?2nd4th−2
2026-03-15Laurel Park?2nd4th−2
2026-02-22Laurel Park?2nd4th−2
2025-07-23Colonial Downs?5th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0523/0718/0413/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/05/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
13/06/20252nd10/147%80%+0.33
02/07/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
23/07/20255th8/158%0%-0.58
22/02/20262nd3/184%80%-0.04
15/03/20262nd13/891%80%-0.11
18/04/20262nd9/153%83%+0.31
09/05/20264th4/179%50%-0.29
13/06/20268th16/116%0%-0.16