1
Prince Colton
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 91
Penn National · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
15/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2024-05-22 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2024-03-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
| 2024-03-13 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 8th | −4 |
| 2024-02-17 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength71%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/12/2023 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 91% | +0.44 |
| 18/01/2024 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |
| 01/02/2024 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 90% | +0.19 |
| 17/02/2024 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |
| 13/03/2024 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 28/03/2024 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 86% | -0.09 |
| 22/05/2024 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 25/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 03/06/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |