6
Smile Mon
6yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 93
Penn National · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-15 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-05-23 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-04-26 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2025-04-13 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2025-02-22 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-01-24 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength70%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/2024 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 14/11/2024 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 05/01/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 24/01/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 22/02/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 13/04/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 26/04/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 23/05/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 15/06/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |