IvyArcIvyArc
2

Tested

4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 99

Penn National · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m 110y

#7

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Fair Grounds 22/11/2024 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 77 · 5f110y Gd 120 · below its mark22/11/2024 · OR 77 par22/11C6OR 77C6 @ Fair Grounds 22/12/2024 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 77 · 1m110y Fm 120 · beat its mark22/12/2024 · OR 77 parC7 @ Fair Grounds 27/01/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 81 · 1m110y 122 · below its mark27/01/2025 · OR 81 par27/01C7OR 81C7 @ Fair Grounds 20/02/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 84 · 1m110y Fas 122 · below its mark20/02/2025 · OR 84 parC7 @ Fair Grounds 14/03/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 87 · 1m110y Fm 122 · beat its mark14/03/2025 · OR 87 par14/03C7OR 87C5 @ Monmouth Park 21/06/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 92 · 1m110y Fm 117 · below its mark21/06/2025 · OR 92 parC7 @ Colonial Downs 17/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 92 · 1m Fm 118 · below its mark17/07/2025 · OR 92 par17/07C7OR 92C7 @ Delaware Park 28/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 95 · 1m70y Fm 117 · below its mark28/08/2025 · OR 95 parC7 @ Delaware Park 04/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 91 · 1m Fm 118 · below its mark04/10/2025 · OR 91 par4/10C7OR 91projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-10-04Delaware Park?7th9th−2
2025-08-28Delaware Park?3rd5th−2
2025-07-17Colonial Downs?8th10th−2
2025-06-21Monmouth Park?9th9th0
2025-03-14Fair Grounds?1st3rd−2
2025-02-20Fair Grounds?2nd4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/1120/0217/074/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength16%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/11/20245th16/116%50%+0.34
22/12/20244th40/10%73%+0.73
27/01/20253rd7/163%71%+0.08
20/02/20252nd4/179%88%+0.09
14/03/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
21/06/20259th25/10%20%+0.20
17/07/20258th20/10%13%+0.13
28/08/20253rd9/153%60%+0.07
04/10/20257th20/10%45%+0.45