5
Tuff Luck
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 96
Penn National · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
80%
Place Prob
57%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength70%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 83% | -0.11 |
| 23/11/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 63% | -0.26 |
| 10/01/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 22/02/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 22/03/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 01/05/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 14/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 31/05/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 08/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |