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Warning Sign
7yo Gelding · 11-3 · OR 81
Sandown · Corinthian Amateur Jockeys' Handicap · 1m 1f 209y
#1
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
87%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | Goodwood | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Lingfield | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Lingfield | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Newmarket | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-25 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-07 | Sandown | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength91%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/03/2025 | 11th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 12/06/2025 | 2nd | 18/5 | 81% | 90% | +0.09 |
| 04/07/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 07/08/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 25/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 20/09/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 85% | +0.24 |
| 20/03/2026 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 14/04/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |