4
Ascending Star
3yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 80
Sandown · BetMGM 80s Day Saturday 29 August Handicap · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#3
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Sandown | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Lingfield | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-18 | Hamilton | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-06-14 | Chester | 2 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength86%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 18/07/2025 | 3rd | 8/11 | 96% | 60% | -0.36 |
| 26/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 03/07/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 78% | -0.12 |