1
Desert Shadow
4yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 85
Sandown · BetMGM 80s Day Saturday 29 August Handicap · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Lingfield | 3 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Redcar | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Southwell | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Meydan | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Beverley | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-07 | Sandown | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength62%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 90% | +0.11 |
| 20/05/2025 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 71% | -0.21 |
| 12/06/2025 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 27% | -0.15 |
| 07/08/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 30/08/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 13/03/2026 | 12th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 23/04/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 20% | -0.68 |
| 26/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 15/07/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |