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3yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 80

Sandown · BetMGM 80s Day Saturday 29 August Handicap · 7f

#1

Rank

Odds

18/1

Win Prob

88%

Place Prob

59%

Rank

#1

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful in a Hamilton maiden (good to firm) last summer. Yet to repeat his juvenile form this season, most recently when second of 6 over C&D (good to firm) last month. Looks vulnerable once again (has had a breathing operation).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength64%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ayr 21/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 6f Goo 13321/0544 @ Ayr 21/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 6f Gd 1334 @ Hamilton 18/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 6f6y Goo 13318/0744 @ Newbury 15/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 81 · 6f Goo 135 · beat its mark15/08/2025 · OR 81 par2 @ Hamilton 03/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 81 · 6f6y Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/09/2025 · OR 81 par3/092OR 812 @ Epsom Downs 05/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 82 · 7f3y Goo 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Ffos Las 17/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 81 · 7f80y Sft 130 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 81 par17/064OR 813 @ Sandown 04/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 80 · 7f Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 80 par4/073OR 80projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-04Sandown32nd1st+1
2026-06-17Ffos Las42nd2nd0
2026-06-05Epsom Downs212th10th+2
2025-09-03Hamilton22nd0th+2
2025-08-15Newbury44th4th0
2025-07-18Hamilton41st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0515/0817/064/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength68%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/05/20253rd10/382%67%-0.16
21/06/20255th11/486%33%-0.52
18/07/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
15/08/20254th16/583%57%-0.26
03/09/20252nd8/158%83%+0.25
05/06/202612th25/10%27%+0.27
17/06/20262nd6/168%80%+0.12
04/07/20262nd18/15%80%+0.75