Tavana
3yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 84
Sandown · BetMGM 80s Day Saturday 29 August Handicap · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Newbury | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Sandown | 1 | 8th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-06-19 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 11th | 9th | +2 |
| 2026-05-16 | Newbury | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-11-02 | Deauville | ? | 4th | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-10-10 | Newmarket | 1 | 7th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/2025 | 1st | 28/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 24/07/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 19/09/2025 | 1st | 18/5 | 81% | 100% | +0.19 |
| 10/10/2025 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 02/11/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 16/05/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 11% | +0.06 |
| 19/06/2026 | 11th | 100/1 | 0% | 66% | +0.66 |
| 04/07/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |