H Key Lails
6yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 74
Sandown · Community Fund For Elmbridge Handicap · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Ascot | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-03 | Sandown | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Lingfield | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-29 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-12 | Lingfield | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/11/2025 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 08/12/2025 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 67% | +0.25 |
| 22/12/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 64% | -0.15 |
| 12/01/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 29/01/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 07/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 01/06/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 03/07/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 24/07/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |