Kodi Fire
4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 75
Sandown · Community Fund For Elmbridge Handicap · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Chepstow | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Chepstow | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Brighton | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Salisbury | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Windsor | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Newbury | 4 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 14/08/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 02/09/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 43% | -0.40 |
| 20/09/2025 | 14th | 16/1 | 16% | 7% | -0.09 |
| 07/05/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 23/05/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 30% | +0.14 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 16/07/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 24/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |