8
First Trumpet
5yo Horse · 8-11 · OR 78
Saratoga · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/02/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 06/03/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 14/03/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 29/03/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 24/04/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 02/05/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 24/05/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 13/06/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 13/07/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |