3

Interlock Empire

6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 100

Saratoga · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

94%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength57%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Churchill Downs 20/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 95 · 1m Fas 124 · below its mark20/06/2025 · OR 95 par20/06C8OR 95C7 @ Ellis Park 14/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 95 · 1m 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/07/2025 · OR 95 parC8 @ Ellis Park 04/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 96 · 1m 123 · below its mark04/08/2025 · OR 96 par4/08C8OR 96C8 @ Churchill Downs 14/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 95 · 1m110y 122 · beat its mark14/09/2025 · OR 95 parC8 @ Keeneland 19/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 96 · 1m110y 122 · below its mark19/10/2025 · OR 96 par19/10C8OR 96C8 @ Fair Grounds 29/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 100 · 1m110y 121 · below its mark29/11/2025 · OR 100 parC7 @ Fair Grounds 28/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 103 · 1m70y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/12/2025 · OR 103 par28/12C7OR 103C7 @ Fair Grounds 31/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 101 · 1m Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark31/01/2026 · OR 101 parC7 @ Fair Grounds 22/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 100 · 1m70y Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/02/2026 · OR 100 par22/02C7OR 100projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-02-22Fair Grounds?2nd1st+1
2026-01-31Fair Grounds?2nd1st+1
2025-12-28Fair Grounds?3rd2nd+1
2025-11-29Fair Grounds?3rd3rd0
2025-10-19Keeneland?2nd2nd0
2025-09-14Churchill Downs?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0614/0928/1222/02
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength90%

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/06/20254th7/491%63%-0.28
14/07/20254th6/168%50%-0.18
04/08/20253rd7/282%71%-0.10
14/09/20251st4/696%100%+0.04
19/10/20252nd7/282%88%+0.06
29/11/20253rd8/158%71%+0.14
28/12/20253rd6/168%67%-0.02
31/01/20262nd10/382%80%-0.02
22/02/20262nd7/282%75%-0.07