Screaming Uncle

6yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 81

Saratoga · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength33%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.2

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-16	Saratoga	?	7th	6th	+1	4.2
2026-06-12	Belmont At The Big A	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-05-25	Belmont At The Big A	?	4th	3rd	+1	7.2
2026-05-16	Belmont At The Big A	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-05-08	Belmont At The Big A	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-04-11	Aqueduct	?	4th	4th	0	6.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 8

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▬

Strength32%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
29/11/2025	3rd	9/1	53%	67%	+0.14
13/12/2025	6th	11/2	71%	0%	-0.71
21/03/2026	7th	8/1	58%	25%	-0.33
11/04/2026	4th	5/1	74%	40%	-0.34
08/05/2026	5th	11/2	71%	33%	-0.38
16/05/2026	2nd	11/4	86%	89%	+0.03
25/05/2026	4th	15/2	61%	50%	-0.11
12/06/2026	4th	5/1	74%	57%	-0.17
16/07/2026	7th	13/2	66%	0%	-0.66