1
Shipsational
7yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 94
Saratoga · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength46%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 28/12/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 11/02/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.10 |
| 21/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 09/04/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 30/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 22/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 26/06/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 40% | -0.50 |
| 03/07/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |