Bernina Express

3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 58

Saratoga · Race 10 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼3

Strength83%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 7.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +2.5

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-06-21	Belmont At The Big A	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0
2026-04-16	Aqueduct	?	8th	5th	+3	5.0
2025-12-26	Aqueduct	?	8th	5th	+3	5.0
2025-11-13	Aqueduct	?	7th	4th	+3	6.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 15

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▲

Strength30%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 15. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
13/11/2025	7th	14/1	26%	45%	+0.19
26/12/2025	8th	5/2	87%	0%	-0.87
16/04/2026	8th	15/2	61%	30%	-0.31
21/06/2026	6th	20/1	0%	55%	+0.55