8

Intothewilderness

3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 77

Saratoga · Race 10 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

92%

Place Prob

59%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move2
Strength61%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Belmont At The Big A 03/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 6f Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS3/10C6C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 23/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 73 · 1m110y Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/10/2025 · OR 73 par23/10C6OR 73C6 @ Aqueduct 13/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 78 · 1m110y Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/11/2025 · OR 78 par13/11C6OR 78C9 @ Belmont At The Big A 11/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 83 · 1m110y Fm 120 · below its mark11/06/2026 · OR 83 par11/06C9OR 83C9 @ Saratoga 16/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 79 · 1m110y Fm 121 · below its mark16/07/2026 · OR 79 par16/07C9OR 79projClass-projected finish: 4th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-16Saratoga?3rd3rd0
2026-06-11Belmont At The Big A?9th9th0
2025-11-13Aqueduct?4th1st+3
2025-10-23Belmont At The Big A?7th4th+3
2025-10-03Belmont At The Big A?4th1st+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/1023/1013/1111/0616/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 15
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength33%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 15. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/10/20254th25/10%70%+0.70
23/10/20257th33/10%45%+0.45
13/11/20254th20/10%73%+0.73
11/06/20269th2/189%27%-0.62
16/07/20263rd7/282%82%+0.00