Luciana's Honor
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 49
Saratoga · Race 10 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-03 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-17 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-21 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2025-08-06 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 21/09/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |
| 17/10/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 15/11/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 03/01/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |