Mia Sophia
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 61
Saratoga · Race 10 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 8.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Saratoga | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-08-13 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-07-24 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 13/08/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 11/06/2026 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 9% | -0.28 |
| 25/06/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 16/07/2026 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |