San Antonio Sara

3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 64

Saratoga · Race 10 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼3

Strength78%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +2.5

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-05-24	Gulfstream	?	4th	1st	+3	9.0
2026-02-12	Gulfstream	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0
2025-08-28	Saratoga	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0
2025-07-12	Gulfstream	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 15

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength32%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 15. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
12/07/2025	3rd	15/8	90%	80%	-0.10
28/08/2025	3rd	5/2	87%	67%	-0.20
12/02/2026	5th	15/2	61%	0%	-0.61
24/05/2026	4th	3/1	84%	57%	-0.27