Always Honest
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 68
Saratoga · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 7f
#9
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-05-24 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-23 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-03 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-12-07 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 07/12/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 03/01/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 23/01/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 24/05/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 11/06/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 63% | -0.09 |