11
Bargain Purchase
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 67
Saratoga · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
47%
Place Prob
33%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength25%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength83%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 14% | -0.46 |
| 19/07/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 63% | -0.26 |