IvyArcIvyArc
4

Bye For Now

3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 78

Saratoga · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 7f

#5

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼3
Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Belmont At The Big A 10/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 6f 121 · HIGHER CLASS10/05C6C6 @ Saratoga 05/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 63 · 6f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/07/2026 · OR 63 par5/07C6OR 63projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-05Saratoga?5th2nd+3
2026-05-10Belmont At The Big A?5th2nd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/055/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength31%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/05/20265th11/271%20%-0.51
05/07/20265th15/261%20%-0.41