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5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 77

Saratoga · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength59%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: +1.4
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Aqueduct 29/03/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 81 · 6f110y Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/03/2025 · OR 81 par29/03C7OR 81C8 @ Belmont At The Big A 01/05/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 90 · 7f Fas 118 · below its mark01/05/2025 · OR 90 parC5 @ Finger Lakes 08/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 83 · 6f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/09/2025 · OR 83 par8/09C5OR 83C5 @ Finger Lakes 30/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 85 · 6f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/09/2025 · OR 85 parC5 @ Finger Lakes 20/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 83 · 6f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/10/2025 · OR 83 par20/10C5OR 83C8 @ Finger Lakes 18/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 81 · 5f110y 122 · beat its mark18/11/2025 · OR 81 parC8 @ Aqueduct 11/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 84 · 6f 122 · below its mark11/12/2025 · OR 84 par11/12C8OR 84C5 @ Finger Lakes 01/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 80 · 6f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/06/2026 · OR 80 parC7 @ Saratoga 10/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 79 · 7f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/07/2026 · OR 79 par10/07C7OR 79projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-10Saratoga?6th5th+1
2026-06-01Finger Lakes?1st-2th+3
2025-12-11Aqueduct?7th7th0
2025-11-18Finger Lakes?1st1st0
2025-10-20Finger Lakes?2nd-1th+3
2025-09-30Finger Lakes?6th3rd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0330/0911/1210/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength51%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/03/20257th20/10%25%+0.25
01/05/20258th11/486%13%-0.73
08/09/20252nd3/184%80%-0.04
30/09/20256th7/491%17%-0.74
20/10/20252nd9/153%88%+0.35
18/11/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
11/12/20257th4/179%14%-0.65
01/06/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
10/07/20266th4/179%29%-0.50