Shezanarcticqueen
6yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 74
Saratoga · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-24 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-06 | Aqueduct | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2025-10-13 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08/2025 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 14/09/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 28/09/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 13/10/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 06/11/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/05/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 11/06/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 05/07/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |