Short Shift
6yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 76
Saratoga · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-06-25 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-24 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-05-17 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-02 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 06/06/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 63% | -0.09 |
| 10/07/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |
| 02/04/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 08/05/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 17/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 24/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 25/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 28/07/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |