9
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3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 84
Saratoga · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼3
Strength78%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | Aqueduct | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2025-10-09 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-09-21 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-08-22 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-08-08 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength62%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 22/08/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 21/09/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 09/10/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 08/11/2025 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 36% | -0.40 |