11
Mykonos
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 79
Saratoga · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
27%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength21%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-01-25 | Gulfstream | ? | 10th | 7th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength74%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 25/01/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/03/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 63% | +0.02 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 12/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 78% | -0.04 |