7
Pilot Knob
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 72
Saratoga · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Saratoga | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Aqueduct | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-03-08 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength65%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/02/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 08/03/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 18/04/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 03/06/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 28/06/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 12/07/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |