Sir Walta

3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 74

Saratoga · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼3

Strength78%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +2.5

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2025-11-14	Aqueduct	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0
2025-10-24	Belmont At The Big A	?	9th	6th	+3	4.0
2025-09-21	Belmont At The Big A	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0
2025-08-29	Saratoga	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish10th of 14

▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price

Trend▼

Strength28%

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
29/08/2025	5th	33/1	0%	64%	+0.64
21/09/2025	5th	9/4	88%	50%	-0.38
24/10/2025	9th	12/1	37%	0%	-0.37
14/11/2025	3rd	7/1	63%	78%	+0.15