12

Speightful Storm

4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 71

Saratoga · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

54%

Place Prob

34%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move2
Strength73%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: +2.1
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Saratoga 27/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 7f 119 · HIGHER CLASS27/07C6C6 @ Saratoga 23/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 78 · 6f Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/08/2025 · OR 78 parC6 @ Belmont At The Big A 19/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 86 · 6f110y 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/09/2025 · OR 86 par19/09C6OR 86C6 @ Aqueduct 14/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 86 · 6f110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/11/2025 · OR 86 parC6 @ Aqueduct 12/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 87 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/12/2025 · OR 87 par12/12C6OR 87C6 @ Aqueduct 22/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 72 · 6f Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/03/2026 · OR 72 parC6 @ Aqueduct 17/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 73 · 6f Fm 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/04/2026 · OR 73 par17/04C6OR 73C9 @ Belmont At The Big A 26/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 69 · 6f 126 · below its mark26/06/2026 · OR 69 par26/06C9OR 69projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-26Belmont At The Big A?3rd3rd0
2026-04-17Aqueduct?8th5th+3
2026-03-22Aqueduct?3rd0th+3
2025-12-12Aqueduct?4th1st+3
2025-11-14Aqueduct?4th1st+3
2025-09-19Belmont At The Big A?4th1st+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0714/1117/0426/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 14
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength29%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/07/20257th16/116%33%+0.18
23/08/20253rd20/10%78%+0.78
19/09/20254th3/184%57%-0.27
14/11/20254th16/116%50%+0.34
12/12/20254th9/488%40%-0.48
22/03/20263rd11/486%60%-0.26
17/04/20268th13/266%13%-0.53
26/06/20263rd2/189%67%-0.23