3
Twenty One Red
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 79
Saratoga · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 14
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength57%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 56% | -0.30 |
| 31/12/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 04/02/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 15/02/2026 | 2nd | 4/6 | 96% | 83% | -0.13 |
| 08/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 26/04/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 63% | -0.20 |
| 17/05/2026 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 22% | -0.59 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 12/07/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 56% | -0.29 |