A Bourbon For Toby
4yo Colt · 9-0 · OR 102
Saratoga · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#3
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | -4th | +5 |
| 2026-05-07 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-11-13 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 1st | +5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 24/07/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 28/08/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 91% | +0.12 |
| 04/10/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 13/11/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 03/04/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 07/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 27/06/2026 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 29% | -0.60 |