14
Alternate Reality
6yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 98
Saratoga · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#12
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-12-14 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-11-15 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-10-15 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-09-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 14
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength60%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 16/07/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 31/08/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 28/09/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 15/10/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 15/11/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 62% | +0.35 |
| 14/12/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 28/06/2026 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 50% | -0.42 |
| 26/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |