13
Le Gris
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 98
Saratoga · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-02-05 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 14
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 18/10/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 30/11/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 05/02/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 05/03/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 27/03/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 01/05/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 25/07/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |