Mount Rundle
7yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 100
Saratoga · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#14
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | Keeneland | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 10th | 4th | +5 |
| 2025-06-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-05-18 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2024 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 55% | -0.03 |
| 22/03/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 73% | +0.46 |
| 24/04/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 27% | -0.25 |
| 18/05/2025 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 22/06/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 90% | +0.29 |
| 08/11/2025 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 30/11/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 91% | +0.25 |
| 21/02/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |
| 23/04/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |