8
Ocean Atlantique
9yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 101
Saratoga · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#6
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength37%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-06-14 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-04-30 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-03-08 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 14
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength64%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 78% | -0.12 |
| 25/10/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 15/11/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 02/01/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 91% | +0.17 |
| 07/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 90% | +0.19 |
| 08/03/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 30/04/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 14/06/2026 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 17/07/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 29% | -0.58 |