1
Relative Value
4yo Colt · 9-0 · OR 97
Saratoga · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#5
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-04-22 | Keeneland | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-11-28 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-01-03 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 14
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength66%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/01/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 28/11/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 22/04/2026 | 7th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |