5
Buttah
4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 94
Saratoga · Race 9 - John Morrissey Stakes · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-14 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-02-06 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-01-03 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-11-15 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-09-12 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength44%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 14/07/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 14/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 12/09/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 15/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 03/01/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 38% | -0.28 |
| 06/02/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 14/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |