Doc Sullivan
5yo Horse · 9-0 · OR 107
Saratoga · Race 9 - John Morrissey Stakes · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
89%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 2.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-02-06 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | -1th | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 63% | -0.22 |
| 31/07/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 23/08/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 27/09/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 25/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 22/11/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 26/12/2025 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 06/02/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 80% | -0.12 |
| 21/03/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |