11
Donegal Surges
6yo Horse · 8-12 · OR 91
Saratoga · Race 9 - John Morrissey Stakes · 7f
#9
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-04 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-12-27 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 13
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength39%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/12/2024 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 24/10/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 21/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 27/12/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 90% | +0.37 |
| 04/02/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 28/02/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 29/03/2026 | 7th | 15/8 | 90% | 0% | -0.90 |
| 26/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 03/06/2026 | 8th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |