3
El Grande O
5yo Horse · 8-12 · OR 101
Saratoga · Race 9 - John Morrissey Stakes · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength25%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-02 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-14 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-09 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-02-09 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength69%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2024 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 06/12/2024 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 28/12/2024 | 6th | 11/8 | 93% | 17% | -0.76 |
| 09/02/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 09/10/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 14/02/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 02/04/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 22/05/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 28/06/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |