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4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 92

Saratoga · Race 9 - John Morrissey Stakes · 7f

#5

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Belmont At The Big A 18/10/2024 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 75 · 1m Fas 119 · below its mark18/10/2024 · OR 75 par18/10C6OR 75C6 @ Saratoga 06/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 79 · 7f Slo 118 · beat its mark06/06/2025 · OR 79 parBHA81 @ Finger Lakes 14/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 81 · 1m110y 118 · below its mark14/07/2025 · OR 81 par14/0781OR 81BHA88 @ Saratoga 21/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 88 · 1m1f 120 · below its mark21/08/2025 · OR 88 parC5 @ Finger Lakes 22/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 94 · 6f 118 · beat its mark22/09/2025 · OR 94 par22/09C5OR 94C5 @ Belmont At The Big A 25/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 90 · 6f110y 125 · below its mark25/10/2025 · OR 90 parC6 @ Aqueduct 25/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 86 · 7f Slo 126 · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 86 par25/04C6OR 86C6 @ Saratoga 05/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 87 · 6f 126 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 87 parC5 @ Saratoga 03/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 89 · 7f 126 · below its mark03/07/2026 · OR 89 par3/07C5OR 89projClass-projected finish: 9th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-03Saratoga?5th6th−1
2026-06-05Saratoga?1st2nd−1
2026-04-25Aqueduct?3rd4th−1
2025-10-25Belmont At The Big A?8th8th0
2025-09-22Finger Lakes?1st1st0
2025-08-21SaratogaBHA882nd7th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/1021/0825/043/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 13
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength73%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/10/20247th7/282%25%-0.57
06/06/20251st8/158%100%+0.42
14/07/20252nd4/179%67%-0.12
21/08/20252nd9/276%75%-0.01
22/09/20251st2/1199%100%+0.01
25/10/20258th20/10%0%0.00
25/04/20263rd3/184%78%-0.06
05/06/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
03/07/20265th5/287%33%-0.54