2
Light Man
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 101
Saratoga · Race 9 - John Morrissey Stakes · 7f
#12
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-08-29 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-07-31 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-06-13 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2024-11-23 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 13
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength61%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 12th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2024 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 31/08/2024 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 27/10/2024 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 23/11/2024 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 29% | -0.50 |
| 13/06/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 31/07/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 78% | +0.17 |
| 29/08/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 03/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 24/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |