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2

Carleys Lilly

5yo Mare · 11-11

Sligo · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares (Pro/Am) Flat Race · 2m 2f 134y

#3

Rank

Odds

22/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Bred to stay well. Showed promise on first of 2 hurdle starts and did likewise when 7 lengths third on bumper debut over C&D last time. Sets the standard of those with experience.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Clonmel 14/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 18 · OR - · 2m159y Goo 15314/05C8C8 @ Limerick 28/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR - · 2m3f200y Yie 16128/05C8C0 @ Sligo 12/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 2m2f59y Gd 16512/07C?projClass-projected finish: 1st of 3
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-12Sligo?3rd3rd0
2026-05-28Limerick?9th9th0
2026-05-14Clonmel?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0528/0512/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength61%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/05/20264th66/10%82%+0.82
28/05/20269th16/116%43%+0.27
12/07/20263rd22/10%80%+0.80