Distillation
3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 53
Southwell · attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 14y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
90%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Ffos Las | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Kempton | 4 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2025-11-24 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2025-10-24 | Newbury | 4 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2025 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 24/11/2025 | 10th | 150/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 04/05/2026 | 9th | 150/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 02/06/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 17/06/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 21/07/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |