IvyArcIvyArc
6

Alice's Influence

3yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 51

Southwell · attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 14y

#1

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

90%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained a first win at Wetherby in April and largely in good nick since, saddle slipped when fourth of 7 at Chepstow (1m) on most recent start. Not out of things in a headgear change.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Chepstow 02/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 7f16y Sft 124 · HIGHER CLASS2/0955 @ Wolverhampton 22/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR - · 1m142y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS6 @ Wolverhampton 24/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 45 · 1m142y Std 126 · beat its mark24/03/2026 · OR 45 par24/036OR 456 @ Wetherby 26/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 45 · 1m Goo 126 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Bath 04/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 45 · 1m Gd 131 · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 45 par4/056OR 456 @ Chepstow 29/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 53 · 1m14y Goo 130 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Ffos Las 17/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 53 · 1m Sft 125 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 53 par17/066OR 536 @ Pontefract 29/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 52 · 1m6y Goo 127 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Chepstow 03/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 52 · 1m14y Goo 133 · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 52 par3/076OR 52projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-03Chepstow64th4th0
2026-06-29Pontefract63rd3rd0
2026-06-17Ffos Las64th4th0
2026-05-29Chepstow63rd3rd0
2026-05-04Bath62nd2nd0
2026-04-26Wetherby61st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0926/0417/063/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength41%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/09/20255th100/10%43%+0.43
22/09/20259th300/10%27%+0.27
24/03/20264th40/10%63%+0.63
26/04/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
04/05/20262nd9/276%86%+0.09
29/05/20263rd9/488%67%-0.21
17/06/20264th9/276%25%-0.51
29/06/20263rd13/266%75%+0.09
03/07/20264th3/184%50%-0.34