3
Elashgar
3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 53
Southwell · attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 14y
#3
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength44%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Thirsk | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Catterick | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Nottingham | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-02 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 9
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength26%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08/2025 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 22/01/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 02/02/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 27/02/2026 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 07/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 26/04/2026 | 10th | 7/1 | 63% | 36% | -0.27 |
| 22/06/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 16/07/2026 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |